SP500 – Weekly Analysis
In this weekly report, we review the latest developments, assess the evolving structure, and outline the levels and conditions that will help determine the next move.
CANDLES
This week, after technically forming a bottom last week, SP500 confirmed a breakout. The daily structure remains broadly bullish. The price is strongly above the 200/100/50 DMA with a bullish trend, reinforced by a strong 8/20-week EMA cross. Bullish momentum extends up to the 18D frame, putting the monthly on track for a bullish reversal close.
At the same time, as discussed in the daily reports, multiple hourly up to daily frames have been overbought for an extended period, and the risk of a short-term pullback is high. The key question is whether this pullback evolves into something larger, which will be monitored on a daily basis.
Elliott Waves
Possible Impulse
Two weeks ago, we began tracking a potential impulsive wave off the March 30 low. The wave has possibly completed, as shown in blue, but there is also a chance for the green structure, meaning that the recent high is the end of wave 3 of the same impulse.
The blue count is very dangerous: wave 5 has extended longer than wave 3, which is a strong Elliott Wave signal for a potentially sharp and extended reversal.
The key moment next week is the pullback and its character. The wave down may have started on Friday (as noted on Discord), but it needs to mature and reveal its true nature.
Mid Term
No changes to the assessment of the mid-term waves discussed in detail on April 15.
SUMMARY
SPX confirmed a breakout after forming a bottom, with a broadly bullish structure supported by price above the 200/100/50 DMA, a strong 8/20 EMA weekly cross, and momentum extending to the 18D frame, keeping the monthly on track for a bullish reversal close.
At the same time, candles and technicals are stretched, with prolonged overbought conditions from hourly to daily, making a pullback likely. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the impulse off the March 30 low may be complete (blue), though a wave 3 extension (green) remains possible. The next pullback is critical—its structure will determine whether this is a healthy correction or the start of a larger reversal, especially given the risk embedded in the extended wave 5 scenario.
