Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
Natural Gas remains at a breaking point—will the next move unlock a sharp reversal or extend the current pressure lower?
In today’s report, we analyze the key technical signals, evolving structure, and critical levels that will determine where Natty heads next.
CANDLES
Today, Natural Gas again had an opportunity to confirm the bottom on the daily, and even on the 2D frame, but something stood in the way. At the same time, the candle conveyed major indecision while offering a ray of hope by closing above the 8 EMA.
The short-term odds are neutral, with a slight bullish lean. Confirmation is required for either path.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
Natty possibly formed an expanding leading diagonal for wave 1, prompting a deep retrace for wave 2, almost to the level of origin of wave 1. If that level is broken, it would invalidate both the potential bullish structure upward and the prior ending diagonal downward, suggesting a different structure and additional evaluation.
If Natty does not make a new lower low and starts a larger impulse upward, it could potentially trigger a roughly 30% rally toward the origin of the diagonal, and it would likely be fierce.
SUMMARY:
Natty remains at a key inflection point. The latest candles showed indecision rather than confirmation, although the close above the 8 EMA keeps a bullish path possible. For now, the short-term odds remain neutral with a slight bullish lean.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, Natty may have formed an expanding leading diagonal followed by a deep retrace almost to the point of origin. That level is now critical: a break below it would invalidate the current bullish setup, while a reversal higher without a new lower low could trigger a fierce rally of roughly 30%.
