SP500 – Daily Analysis
In today’s Daily Report, we break down the market’s internal mechanics, track the signals developing across key timeframes, and pinpoint the levels that could decide the next major move.
CANDLES
It looks like SPX has switched to an extended bullish regime. The previously confirmed daily bearish combo was negated today. At the same time, Nasdaq pushed higher, while the laggards—Dow and Russell—neither confirmed a bearish path nor negated it, leaving slightly elevated bearish odds on the table.
Higher frames for SPX remain bullish. The weekly is tracking for a bullish close and confirmation of a mid-/long-term rally, provided there are no surprises on Thursday–Friday.
At this point, SPX is bullish across all frames. There are some divergences on the hourly frames, but they are not very concerning for now and still require bearish confirmation.
Elliott Waves
Possible Impulse
The EW map at the micro level looks somewhat concerning. Today’s advance appears corrective, and I am viewing the rallies on Monday and today as a possible extended wave ii or b. The structure remains fragile, with slightly higher bearish odds. A new ATH would likely invalidate this setup.
Mid Term
Both the green and purple counts remain on the table, with the purple count still primary for the technical reasons discussed on April 15.
When comparing all major indices, the wave divergence between NQ/SPX and the Dow remains the main unknown. As discussed in the weekly report, the Dow has not made a new ATH yet, and it has more inherent risks.
Dow Jones
As a reminder, the chart below reflects the current Dow wave structure. Until Dow makes a new ATH, the risk of a larger correction in red remains material and could act as a trigger for the broader market, including SPX and Nasdaq.
SUMMARY
SPX has shifted into an extended bullish regime, negating the prior daily bearish combo and maintaining bullish alignment across higher frames, with the weekly tracking toward a confirming close for a broader rally. Intraday divergences exist but are not yet confirmed and remain non-critical for now.
At the same time, the micro Elliott Wave structure is fragile: recent advances appear corrective (possible wave ii or b), leaving slightly higher bearish odds in the near term. The broader risk remains tied to Dow, which has not made a new ATH—keeping the possibility of a larger correction on the table. A new ATH in SPX would likely invalidate the bearish micro setup.
