SP500 – Daily Analysis
In today’s Daily Report, we break down the market’s internal mechanics, track the signals developing across key timeframes, and pinpoint the levels that could decide the next major move.
CANDLES
The rally stalled today. SPX did not confirm a continued move higher, leaving the odds neutral on the daily and 2D frames. If the index closes at this level or makes a moderate pullback on Friday, the weekly would be bullish-neutral. However, a significant drawdown of about 2.1% or more would be concerning from a candlestick perspective.
All major indices have not confirmed moves downward, leaving the situation pending, possibly until tomorrow.
At this point, SPX and the other indices are neutral, with slightly higher bearish odds on candles. However, the trends are still bullish and support remains intact.
Elliott Waves
Possible Impulse
We have a disconnect again. SPX made a new ATH today and started the move down with a fairly clean impulse, as shared earlier on Discord.
At the same time, ES futures did not record a new ATH. If they are to align, today’s move could mark the start of wave 3 of iii, as shown on the chart above. The bounce off today’s low has been corrective so far, so the chances for a new lower low tonight or tomorrow are quite high. Tomorrow will likely be pivotal from the perspective of alignment and development of higher-degree waves. Bears have a slight advantage for now.
Mid Term
Both the green and purple counts remain on the table, with the purple count still primary for the technical reasons discussed on April 15.
When comparing all major indices, the wave divergence between NQ/SPX and the Dow remains the main unknown. As discussed in the weekly report, the Dow has not made a new ATH yet, and it has more inherent risks.
SUMMARY
SPX made a new ATH but immediately reversed with a clean impulsive move down, leaving daily and 2D candles neutral with slightly higher bearish odds. The weekly remains at risk: a moderate pullback keeps it bullish-neutral, while a deeper drawdown (~2%+) would be concerning. Trends are still bullish, and support remains intact.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the move down may be the start of a larger wave, especially is there is a follow-up tomorrow. The bounce so far is corrective, increasing the chances of another lower low. The next session is pivotal for alignment and confirmation, with bears holding a slight edge.
