Gold Weekly Analysis
Gold expectedly capped the recent rally and has now recorded several technical signals that cannot be ignored.
In this weekly analysis, we examine the evolving structure across multiple timeframes, highlight the key levels and targets, and outline the most probable paths as gold approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
Gold finally reversed the anemic rally with a few strong bearish signals on the small frames. As a result, the weekly frame is well positioned to confirm a bearish Harami.
On the daily frame, the commodity lost the 100 DMA support and flipped the 8/20 EMA bearish.
In light of recent developments, the monthly closure will likely be a bearish consolidation before a move lower, either immediate or after a prolonged consolidation.
Overall, gold is moderately bearish in the short and mid term, while bearish momentum continues to build gradually on the long-term frames.
Annual Candles
(no changes in this section)
In the annual analysis, we noted that gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands—a condition that typically resolves with a move back inside the range. That process is now underway. As the bands shift lower, updated targets point to a 32–48% decline from the peak, reflecting an evolving structure and adjusted expectations.
A move toward the 20 EMA, implying a potential ~64% drawdown, should not come as a surprise. While it may sound extreme, this is how extended moves typically unwind—not in a single move, but through a prolonged reversion process.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Gold potentially completed wave 4 in blue or wave a in red. Based on its character and dynamics, the current wave down fits better as wave b of B in red.
Note the inset showing a classical formation for long-term corrections from Robert Prechter’s book. The entire wave B can be very complex and may take a few months to fully develop.
SUMMARY
Gold remains moderately bearish in the short and mid term, while bearish momentum continues to build gradually on the long-term frames. The recent anemic rally reversed with several strong bearish signals on the smaller frames, positioning the weekly frame for confirmation of a bearish Harami. On the daily frame, gold lost the 100 DMA support and flipped the 8/20 EMA bearish.
The monthly closure will likely develop as a bearish consolidation before another move lower, either immediately or after a prolonged sideways phase. From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may have completed wave 4 in blue or wave a in red. The current wave down fits better as wave b of B in red based on its character and dynamics. The broader wave B can be complex and may take a few months to fully develop, and an extended wave B would support the hypothesis of an extended consolidation on the monthly frame.
