Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
Natty continued lower while the spread with TTF widened further, adding another signal that regional gas dynamics remain deeply uneven.
In this weekly report, we review the latest developments, assess the evolving structure, and outline the key levels that will help determine the next directional move.
CANDLES
Natural Gas closed both the week and Friday with bearish candles. The candles themselves signal continuation lower, but I would be extremely cautious with direction, as multiple technicals are stretched and strongly diverging across several frames. While some room for downside remains, it appears very limited.
Under these conditions, I would expect a moderate or strong potential bullish signal on Monday, followed by a possible big gap up on Tuesday after the contract switch.
Overall, Natty remains neutral, with a high risk of a bullish reversal.
Dutch TTF advanced this week, most likely recording a bullish reversal signal on the weekly frame. At the same time, the TTF-NG spread continued to widen, reinforcing the divergence between regional gas markets.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
For a super-classical completion of the Ending Diagonal, Natty needs to spike below the lower boundary of the diagonal on very high volume. At the same time, it must not touch or break the January low.
If this happens on Monday, we would have a completed setup for a super rally with an excellent risk-reward profile: about 2–3% risk versus a potential 32–57%, or even larger, short- to mid-term return.
SUMMARY:
Natty remains neutral, with a high risk of a bullish reversal. While the weekly and Friday candles signal continuation lower, multiple technicals are stretched and strongly diverging across several frames, suggesting that the remaining downside is likely limited.
A completion of the Ending Diagonal could happen on Monday. It could complete the setup for a strong short- to mid-term rally, with an excellent risk-reward profile.
