Nasdaq – Weekly Analysis
Nasdaq has added over 9% since our April 9 call, and it is time to reevaluate the outlook.
As always, we examine candlestick behavior, trend structure, momentum dynamics, and the Elliott Wave framework to assess how the index is evolving and to identify the key levels that will confirm or invalidate the current outlook.
CANDLES
Nasdaq closed the weekly and 15-day frames with solid bullish signals. There is a good probability that the bottom is already behind and that the rally will flip the monthly signals long-term bullish.
The only concern is the strong overbought condition across all smaller frames, from the hourly to the 2D. Such an overstretch will likely trigger a negative reaction, and the index may consolidate or pull back until conditions normalize.
Overall, Nasdaq remains bullish until signaled otherwise. The risk of a pullback is meaningful, but the probability of a strong bullish monthly closure is also very high.
Statistics – 8/20-Week EMA Cross
Nasdaq has advanced about 9.5% since the statistical call on April 9, and all estimates remain intact. Tactically, Nasdaq needs to cool off and normalize short-term technicals through a horizontal or slightly downward move.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
I am tracking two counts as the most probable: the green and the red. The key moment will be the next pullback. If NQ holds above the March low and starts another rally, the current wave can be treated as wave 1 of (3) in red. The red count would also closely resemble the July–October 2023 correction and the subsequent rally, as shown in the inset.
Technicals suggest that the initial wave off the March low is close to its apex, supported by increasing divergence signals.
SUMMARY
Nasdaq remains bullish until signaled otherwise. The weekly and 15-day frames closed with solid bullish signals, increasing the probability that the bottom is already behind and that the rally could flip the monthly signals long-term bullish. The index has advanced about 9.5% since the April 9 statistical call, and all estimates remain intact.
Tactically, however, NQ is stretched. Strong overbought conditions across the smaller frames, from hourly to 2D, and increasing divergence signals suggest that the initial wave off the March low is close to its apex. A horizontal consolidation or a moderate pullback would help normalize short-term technicals.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the green and red counts remain the most probable. The next pullback will be the key test. If NQ holds above the March low and starts another rally, the current wave can be treated as wave 1 of (3) in red, closely resembling the July–October 2023 correction and the subsequent rally.
