SP500 – Weekly Analysis
SPX has reached another critical checkpoint after a powerful recovery, but the next few sessions may decide whether this rally becomes a durable bullish reversal or merely another sharp counter-trend move.
With the index testing the upper boundaries of its recent structure, the focus now shifts to the monthly close, short-term overstretch, and the next pullback. The candles, technicals, and Elliott Wave structure are all approaching a decision point.
In this weekly report, we examine the latest signals across multiple timeframes, review the key support and confirmation levels, and outline the scenarios that could define the next major move for the S&P 500.
CANDLES
This week, SPX consolidated for most of the week and mostly normalized the overbought conditions we discussed in the previous weekly report. At this point, the weekly developments look healthy and signal that the index is entering a sizeable rally. The monthly frame is tracking bullish and has a very solid buffer to absorb potential bearish attacks in the final days of April.
A minor concern is the nine green candles on the 2-day frame. The rally is definitely stretched on this dimension, and a moderate 2–3% pullback would help normalize the conditions there.
Otherwise, all trends are bullish and support a continued rally until signaled otherwise.
Elliott Waves
Possible Impulse
Three weeks ago, we began tracking a potential impulsive wave off the March 30 low. At this point, the technicals continue to support the hypothesis that the current wave is wave 3 of some degree. All drawdowns have been corrective so far, possibly representing foundations for extensions of the current wave.
Once wave 3 completes, I would expect a shallow pullback for wave 4. The green count is now primary.
Mid Term
No changes to the assessment of the mid-term waves discussed in detail on April 15. Both green and purple counts remain on the table.
SUMMARY
SPX remains bullish until signaled otherwise. This week’s consolidation was healthy and helped normalize some of the overbought conditions discussed in the previous weekly report. The weekly developments now support the view that the index is entering a sizeable rally, while the monthly frame is tracking bullish and has a solid buffer to absorb potential bearish pressure into the final days of April.
The only minor concern is the nine green candles on the 2-day frame, which suggest the rally is stretched at that dimension. A moderate 2–3% pullback would help reset those conditions without damaging the broader bullish structure.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the green count is now primary. The technicals continue to support the hypothesis that the rally off the March 30 low is an impulsive wave. All drawdowns have been corrective so far, possibly serving as foundations for extensions of the current wave. Once wave 3 completes, a shallow wave 4 pullback would be expected.
