Bond Market – Monthly Analysis

The bond market just fired one of its loudest warnings of the cycle. Rates are pushing higher, spreads are flashing recession risk, and central banks may be losing control of the easing narrative. This is not just another monthly close. This is a signal worth bookmarking. Almost all sections of this report have been updated with crucial information. CANDLES & TA: The big concern has materialized. The entire curve closed April with overwhelmingly bullish odds. The 2M and 4M frames formed strong bullish reversal and continuation candles, signaling a prolonged bull market in rates. But this is not everything. The most concerning part is that the shorter-maturity end of the curve is more bullish than the longer end, and we discuss the spread implications later in this study. Overall, the rate market is bullish on practically all frames, supported by technically strong long- and very-long-term signals. The question now is…