Natural Gas – Monthly Analysis
Natty made the move we forecasted several days ago. Now it is time to check whether NG, UNG, BOIL, and KOLD are aligned, or whether the instruments are sending mixed signals beneath the surface.
In this monthly report, we review the latest developments, assess the evolving structure, and outline the key levels that will help determine the next directional move.
CANDLES
Natural Gas made a serious bullish statement today. The daily frame flipped the 8/20 EMA lines into a bullish cross, while the 2D confirmed a bottom. The monthly closed with an Inverted Hammer, carrying fair bullish potential, and even the 4M frame transformed from a bearish continuation setup into a possible Ladder Bottom reversal combo.
If we look at the daily frames of UNG, BOIL, and KOLD, they all signal reversals with solid technical backing. The Gas department appears aligned for the next move.
Natty remains bullish in the short term, with solid odds of extending the momentum into the mid-term frame tomorrow with the weekly close. The long-term outlook remains rather undetermined.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
Natty has lifted 15% since the Friday, April 24 bottom, and I have several technical reasons supporting the hypothesis that waves i and ii are complete and wave iii started today.
The origin of the Ending Diagonal remains the next target, potentially marking the end of wave iii.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas made a serious bullish statement into the monthly close. The daily frame flipped the 8/20 EMA into a bullish cross, the 2D confirmed a bottom, and the monthly closed with an Inverted Hammer carrying fair bullish potential. Even the 4M frame improved meaningfully, shifting from a bearish continuation setup into a possible Ladder Bottom reversal combo.
The signal alignment is also notable. NG, UNG, BOIL, and KOLD all support a reversal view on the daily frames, with solid technical backing. Natty is now bullish in the short term, with solid odds of extending momentum into the mid-term frame through the weekly close, while the long-term outlook remains less defined.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Natty has lifted about 15% since the Friday, April 24 bottom, and the structure supports the hypothesis that waves i and ii are complete and wave iii started today. The origin of the Ending Diagonal remains the next target, potentially marking the end of wave iii.
