TLT – Monthly Analysis
Long-term TLT investors may find the April signals uncomfortable.
That is exactly why this chart matters. The goal is not to sell hope, but to read the signals, compare them with historical behavior, and attach realistic expectations to what the market is showing.
Our TLT stance has remained unchanged since 2020, with a full record behind it. In this analysis, we review the latest April signals, assess the technical structure, and outline the most likely path forward.
CANDLES
TLT’s monthly, 2M, and 4M prints signal a continued move downward. The weekly close supports the long-term signals on the mid-term frame.
The narrowest avoidance of the 50/100 DMA bullish cross, together with other technical signals, further supports the candle stance.
TLT is approaching the first target after the Head & Shoulders pattern we flagged back in December. At this stage, a move toward the double-distance target cannot be ruled out.
Overall, TLT is bearish across all frames.
Elliott Wave
Short Term – Flag
There are no changes to the potential flag targets. If TLT makes a new lower low below the 2025 low, it would open the path toward the double-target level implied by the Head & Shoulders structure.
Very Long Term
The charts in this section show the transformation of TLT’s bearish path since 2020. I was willing to suggest a continued decline when TLT was trading around $158, and I maintain the same perspective today, with the current price near $85, after a 45% loss over seven years.
Technical Event (Historical)
As TLT recorded an extremely rare and impactful technical event on the monthly frame, I will keep the following piece discussed in the November 2024 monthly report for a reference:
The monthly frame, despite closing with a green candle, is currently viewed as a bearish continuation candle. This interpretation is supported by several technical indicators, most notably the freshly recorded 50/200 monthly bearish cross—a massive and concerning development.
Since I could not find a very long-term dataset for US20Y or US20, I extrapolated the event using the inverted US10Y dataset, which closely mirrors US20Y and has data extending back to 1913. As shown in the chart below, a similar sequence of 50/100, 50/200, and 100/200 MMA bearish crosses occurred in the early 1950s. That sequence is now repeating. Most likely, the 100/200 MMA cross will be recorded in early December (it was).
Adding to the concern, the first wave off the top (on the inverted scale) was strongly impulsive. The key question now revolves around the length and duration of wave 2/B before the next major move down. Will it stretch over another year or two, or has a sharp zigzag already completed? The upcoming annual closure will likely provide significant answers.
SUMMARY
TLT remains bearish across all frames. The monthly, 2M, and 4M prints all support a continued move lower, while the weekly close reinforces the long-term bearish stance on the mid-term frame. The narrow avoidance of the 50/100 DMA bullish cross, together with other technical signals, further supports the candle message.
TLT is approaching the first target from the Head & Shoulders pattern flagged back in December. If it makes a new lower low below the 2025 low, the path toward the double-distance target could open.
The broader stance remains unchanged. The bearish path has been tracked since 2020, when TLT was around $158, and the same perspective remains in place today with TLT near $85, after a 45% loss over seven years.
