SP500 – Weekly Analysis
In this weekly report, we examine the latest signals across multiple timeframes, review the key support and confirmation levels, and outline the scenarios that could define the next major move for the S&P 500.
CANDLES
SPX was constructive throughout the week and formed bullish monthly and weekly candles. However, Friday’s close delivered a technical surprise: the daily candle morphed from bullish continuation into a potentially dangerous Gravestone Doji.
This makes Monday’s move crucial. If the candle is confirmed by a strong red candle, the index may get a new direction, at least in the short term.
Overall, SPX remains bullish in the mid and long term, but the short term now carries a high risk of a pullback, or even a larger reversal, depending on the momentum recorded next week.
Elliott Waves
Possible Impulse
At the beginning of April, we began tracking a potential impulsive wave off the March 30 low. The impulse is possibly complete under the blue count, or it could still extend under the green count.
The depth and character of the next pullback will likely define the next move. At this point, the technicals provide stronger support for the green count.
Potential Ending Diagonal
Similarly to Nasdaq, SPX also struggled during the second half of April, and the formation can be viewed as an Ending Diagonal in red.
At the same time, I cannot reject the possibility of a running flat, marked as abc in purple. The Thursday–Friday break from the structure could be either the final spike of the diagonal or a breakout from an upward-tilted bullish flag.
The move down at the end of Friday’s session can be viewed either as a Leading Diagonal or as a corrective wave. It needs to mature further to reveal its true properties.
Mid Term
No changes to the assessment of the mid-term waves discussed in detail on April 15. Both green and purple counts remain on the table.
SUMMARY
SPX remains bullish in the mid and long term after forming constructive monthly and weekly candles. However, Friday’s daily close introduced a short-term warning, as the candle morphed into a potentially dangerous Gravestone Doji. Monday’s reaction is now crucial: a strong red confirmation candle could shift the short-term direction and open the door to a pullback or even a larger reversal.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the structure remains unresolved. SPX struggled during the second half of April, and the formation can be viewed either as an Ending Diagonal in red or as a running flat in purple. The Thursday–Friday break could be the final spike of the diagonal or a breakout from an upward-tilted bullish flag. The first wave down also needs to mature, as it can still be viewed either as a Leading Diagonal or as a corrective wave.
The broader impulsive structure off the March 30 low remains the main focus. The impulse may already be complete under the blue count, or it may still extend under the green count. The depth and character of the next pullback will likely define the next move. For now, the technicals provide stronger support for the green count, but the short-term risk has clearly increased.
