Gold Weekly Analysis
In this weekly analysis, we examine gold’s evolving structure across multiple timeframes, review the key levels and downside targets, and outline the most probable paths as the metal approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
Gold closed the week with a Bullish Engulfing and now has higher odds of moving higher. However, the daily frame formed a Gravestone Doji on Thursday, and that signal has not yet been negated. Another technical challenge on the daily frame is the 50/100 DMA bearish cross, which gold will likely record on Monday and could trigger as early as Sunday night. The daily trends also remain bearish for now.
While the short- and mid-term odds are neutral to slightly bullish, and we could see higher prices next week, there is no guarantee that the week will close green. The long-term monthly and 2M frames recorded bearish signals in April, and those risks remain on the back burner.
Annual Candles
(no changes in this section)
In the annual analysis, we noted that gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands—a condition that typically resolves with a move back inside the range. That process is now underway. As the bands shift lower, updated targets point to a 32–48% decline from the peak, reflecting an evolving structure and adjusted expectations.
A move toward the 20 EMA, implying a potential ~64% drawdown, should not come as a surprise. While it may sound extreme, this is how extended moves typically unwind—not in a single move, but through a prolonged reversion process.
ELLIOTT WAVES
There is a fair chance that gold is following the red path, forming a larger flat for wave B. The blue path remains on the table, although its probability has been reduced due to timing.
Note the inset showing a classical formation for long-term corrections from Robert Prechter’s book. The entire wave B can be very complex and may take a few months to fully develop.
SUMMARY
Gold is neutral to slightly bullish in the short and mid term after the weekly Bullish Engulfing, but the setup remains far from clean. The daily Gravestone Doji, bearish daily trends, and likely 50/100 DMA bearish cross keep near-term risks active, even if prices move higher next week.
The larger picture remains more cautious. The Elliott Wave structure suggests gold may be developing a complex wave B, possibly a larger flat, that could take several months to complete. Overall, gold can still push higher short term, but the long-term corrective risk remains firmly on the table.
