SP500 – Daily Analysis
In today’s report, we review the candle picture, examine the next technical targets, and run statistics on recent events. The focus is not on headlines, but on the statistical and technical backdrop behind the move, and whether the rally remains as healthy as it looks on the surface.
CANDLES
Despite a negative open and a sharp drop at the beginning of the session, SPX recovered most of the decline and closed with a set of bullish continuation candles across the 2D, 5D, 10D, and 15D frames. The daily candle was the only neutral one. Bullish momentum remains strong, and the index is approaching a 50/100 DMA bullish cross.
At the same time, the other major indices closed with neutral-bearish candles, which would require confirmation to start a bearish trend. For now, all trends remain bullish, and a significant effort would be needed to reverse them.
Overbought conditions across multiple short- and mid-term frames, along with several technical divergences, remain the main unresolved risk. While the situation has become somewhat less critical, the risk has not disappeared.
Overall, SPX and the other major indices are closer to neutral in the short term, but remain firmly bullish in the mid and long term.
Elliott Waves
No changes to the SPX impulse after the weekly assessment. At this point, the wave shows no strong reversal signals.
However, the technicals suggest that the recent rally could be either the final subwave of wave 3 in green or the final wave 5 of the entire impulse off the March low in blue. The wave could still extend further toward the 3.618x level, so we should continue tracking for confirmed reversal signals, particularly in the candles.
Today’s pullback did not produce a clear impulsive structure in either direction, so we need to wait until the wave matures.
SUMMARY
SPX remains firm on the mid- and long-term frames, supported by strong bullish momentum and constructive multi-day candle closures. Short term, the index has moved closer to neutral after today’s volatility, but there is still no confirmed bearish reversal.
The Elliott Wave structure also remains unresolved rather than damaged. The rally may be nearing a mature stage, but today’s pullback did not produce a clear impulsive decline. For now, SPX remains bullish until reversed, with the main risk still coming from stretched technical conditions and the need for confirmed candle-based reversal signals.
