SP500 – Daily Analysis
In today’s report, we review the candle picture, examine the next technical targets, and run statistics on recent events. The focus is not on headlines, but on the statistical and technical backdrop behind the move, and whether the rally remains as healthy as it looks on the surface.
CANDLES
Today, we continued to observe a divergence between SPX and Nasdaq on one side, and Dow and Russell on the other. SPX and Nasdaq kept building the bullish case, albeit at the expense of increasingly overstretched technicals, which remain the main unresolved concern.
Dow and Russell struggled again, potentially forming strong bearish setups that would still require firm confirmation to materialize.
Overall, SPX and Nasdaq remain bullish until signaled otherwise. Dow and Russell are neutral, with roughly equal chances for either direction.
Elliott Waves
No changes to the SPX impulse after the weekly assessment. At this point, the wave shows no strong reversal signals.
However, the technicals suggest that the recent rally could be either the final subwave of wave 3 in green or the final wave 5 of the entire impulse off the March low in blue. The wave could still extend further toward the 3.618x level, so we should continue tracking for confirmed reversal signals, particularly in the candles.
SUMMARY
SPX remains bullish, with no confirmed reversal signals and the broader impulse still intact. The rally may be approaching a mature stage, but for now the index continues to lean higher, with overstretched technicals remaining the main unresolved risk.
The broader market is increasingly split. Nasdaq continues to support the bullish side alongside SPX, while Dow and Russell remain indecisive and vulnerable to bearish confirmation. Overall, the market is still bullish at the headline level, but internal divergence is becoming harder to ignore.
