Gold Weekly Analysis
Gold is now down 19% from its all-time high, and the key question is whether the correction has already done enough, or whether new lower lows are becoming increasingly likely.
In this weekly analysis, we examine gold’s evolving structure across multiple timeframes, review the key levels and downside targets, and outline the most probable paths as the metal approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
Gold was not able to build bullish momentum after last week’s close and instead gave way to strong bearish signals across both smaller and larger frames. The confirmed 50/100 DMA bearish cross and the unresolved Gravestone Doji added further downside pressure.
Gold is now bearish across the short-, mid-, and long-term frames.
Annual Candles
(no changes in this section)
In the annual analysis, we noted that gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands—a condition that typically resolves with a move back inside the range. That process is now underway. As the bands shift lower, updated targets point to a 32–48% decline from the peak, reflecting an evolving structure and adjusted expectations.
A move toward the 20 EMA, implying a potential ~64% drawdown, should not come as a surprise. While it may sound extreme, this is how extended moves typically unwind—not in a single move, but through a prolonged reversion process.
ELLIOTT WAVES
There is a fair chance that gold is following the red path, forming a larger flat for wave B. The blue path also remains on the table, with the decline potentially unfolding as an impulse, waves 1 and 2 possibly completed, and wave 3 now underway. If gold makes a new lower low below the March low, the probability of the red count would be significantly reduced.
Note the inset showing a classical formation for long-term corrections from Robert Prechter’s book. The entire wave B can be very complex and may take a few months to fully develop.
SUMMARY
Gold’s technical position has deteriorated materially. The metal failed to build on last week’s bullish attempt and has now shifted bearish across the short-, mid-, and long-term frames, raising the odds that the correction is not yet complete.
From a broader structural perspective, gold may still be forming a complex wave B, but the alternative of a deeper impulsive decline is gaining relevance. A break below the March low would strengthen the bearish case further and increase the probability of new lower lows.
