TLT – Weekly Analysis

Well, as predicted, TLT is moving lower again, reinforcing the bearish path we have been tracking. But the latest signals also introduce an important caveat. In this analysis, we review the evolving technical structure, assess whether the decline is becoming stretched enough for a rebound, and outline the most likely path forward for TLT as the bond market continues to pressure long-duration assets. CANDLES During this week, TLT formed several mid- and long-term bearish continuation signals, further reinforcing the broader bearish odds. However, the daily frame moved out of bounds and became strongly oversold, raising the risk of a bounce early next week, with some chance of developing into a mid-term rebound. From the larger perspective, we should remember that the 2M and 4M frames printed bearish signals in April. This suggests that any move higher is likely to remain limited. Overall, TLT continues to maintain bearish trends across the…