SP500 – Weekly Analysis
Up or down? The S&P 500 is approaching a point where the next move may carry far more weight than another routine weekly swing.
In this weekly report, we examine the latest signals across multiple timeframes, review the key support and confirmation levels, and outline the scenarios that could define the next major move for the S&P 500.
CANDLES
SPX delivered a powerful bearish move on Friday, strong enough to form a daily Bearish Kicking on the cash index and a 2D Bearish Engulfing on futures. The weekly candle softened and could still develop into a Hammer if confirmed next week. At the same time, all major trends remain bullish, and SPX formed a 50/100 DMA bullish cross just a few days ago. For now, this points more to the risk of a short-term pullback than to a confirmed larger reversal.
The concern rises sharply when we look under the hood at sector behavior. Energy is the only sector that still looks clearly healthy. Technology has not produced a decisive bearish signal yet, but it is technically stretched. Most other major sectors, including Finance, Industrials, Staples, Communication, and Healthcare, are already under pressure from bearish candles and weakening technical structures. If Technology softens or reverses in the next few sessions, the broader turn could become far more consequential.
Overall, SPX is bearish short term, neutral mid term, and bullish long term, but the risk profile has clearly become more elevated.
Elliott Waves
Possible Impulse
No changes to the previous assessment of the SPX impulse. The technicals suggest that the recent rally could be either the final subwave of wave 3 in green or the final wave 5 of the entire impulse off the March low in blue.
The wave down looks impulsive so far, which slightly improves the odds for the blue count.
Last Wave
The index has likely developed an impulse of a higher degree, as shown in either the red or blue count. Both scenarios point toward a continued decline and raise the odds of a potentially significant wave down on Monday, possibly in the 2–2.5% range.
The green count remains bullish. If the index makes only a moderate drop on Monday and then reverses upward in a clear impulsive fashion, the larger rally would likely resume.
Mid Term
No changes to the assessment of the mid-term waves. Both the green and purple counts remain on the table.
SUMMARY
SPX has shifted into a short-term bearish posture after Friday’s sharp reversal, with the first impulsive decline now raising the odds of additional downside early next week. The larger trend is not broken yet, but the risk profile has changed materially, especially if Monday follows the red or blue Elliott Wave paths rather than the bullish green alternative.
The broader market picture makes the warning harder to ignore. Nasdaq appears to be leading the correction with the clearest wave structure, while Dow and Russell have already flashed their own concerning signals. Under the hood, sector weakness is spreading across Finance, Industrials, Staples, Communication, and Healthcare, with Energy standing out as the only clearly healthy group. Technology has not fully cracked yet, but it is highly stretched. If it softens next, the market turn could become much more consequential.
