SP500 – Daily Analysis
S&P 500 is finally talking, and the message deserves attention.
In today’s report, we review the candle picture, examine the next technical targets, and run statistics on recent events. The focus is not on headlines, but on the statistical and technical backdrop behind the move, and whether the rally remains as healthy as it appears on the surface.
CANDLES
Things are getting hotter. Bearish momentum extended to the 3D frame, which is forming a Bearish Engulfing after similar signals appeared on the daily and 2D charts. At the same time, both SPX and Nasdaq broke below their 8 EMA support. Dow is already challenging the 20 EMA, while Russell has confirmed the loss of both levels and remains strongly bearish.
Overall, SPX, Nasdaq, and Dow have flipped bearish in the short term. The mid-term outlook is now closer to neutral, with risks increasingly spilling onto the weekly frame.
Elliott Waves
Last Wave
Over the last two days, all waves up and down were likely corrective. There is a chance that the structure formed an Ending Diagonal, either for wave v of (i) in blue or for wave (c) in green of the entire correction.
Ideally, I would like to see one more lower low followed by a sharp move higher. Under that hypothesis, the character of the next wave up will be crucial. A corrective rebound would signal the likelihood of lower lows, potentially wave (iii). An impulsive advance, however, could mark the end of the correction and the start of the next leg of the long-term rally.
I will try to evaluate the situation later tonight and post a Road Map update for Nasdaq, which is tracking closely with the SPX structure.
SUMMARY
SPX has flipped bearish in the short term, with weakness now spreading across daily, 2D, and 3D frames and beginning to pressure the broader market structure. Nasdaq and Dow are aligned with this deterioration, while Russell remains the clearest bearish outlier.
At the same time, the Elliott Wave picture has not fully resolved. The current decline may be nearing a tactical decision point, where the next rebound will determine whether this is only a completed correction within the larger bullish trend, or the opening stage of a deeper move lower.
