Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
In today’s report, we examine Natural Gas through its key technical signals and evolving structure, identify the critical levels now in focus, and assess the most probable path for Natty’s next major move.
CANDLES
After yesterday’s Bearish Engulfing candle, Natural Gas did not make a decisive follow-through move. However, the short-term odds are now leaning bearish, and the weekly close remains wide open.
All key support lines are still intact, but that could change tomorrow. While the mid-term outlook remains bullish, Friday’s close will be critical for confirming whether this is only a short-term pause or the beginning of a deeper pullback.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
The gap that Natty formed at the end of April still adds a great deal of uncertainty to the wave counts. While the recent advance could represent the first subwave of wave iii in green, it could also be the final wave of a larger diagonal structure, as shown in red.
If Natty extends the pullback below the May 7 low, the red scenario would likely become primary. At this point, however, there are too many unknowns, which makes the Elliott Wave structure less reliable than usual.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas remains mixed short term, with bearish odds slightly elevated after the recent Bearish Engulfing and lack of decisive recovery. However, all key support lines remain intact, and the mid-term outlook is still bullish for now.
The Elliott Wave picture is less reliable due to the late-April gap and multiple viable paths. Friday’s close will be key: it should help clarify whether Natty is only pausing within the broader bullish structure or beginning a deeper pullback that could shift the primary wave scenario.
