SP500 – Daily Analysis
In today’s report, we review the candle picture, examine the next technical targets, and run statistics on recent events. The focus is not on headlines, but on the statistical and technical backdrop behind the move, and whether the rally remains as healthy as it appears on the surface.
CANDLES
Yesterday’s bullish signals on the daily frame were confirmed today. All four major indices pushed decisively higher and formed bullish continuation candles on both the daily and, more importantly, the 2D frames.
The move expanded bullish momentum on the short-term frames and increased the odds of confirming that strength on the weekly frames tomorrow.
Overall, the candle outlook for SPX, Nasdaq, and Dow is bullish in the short term, while the mid- and long-term trends remain bullish.
Elliott Waves
Last Wave
One small higher high made a meaningful difference. The wave off the bottom can now be viewed as a leading diagonal for wave (i), followed by a limited pullback of roughly 0.5x of wave (i), which makes the decline a strong candidate for wave (ii). While the blue path for a larger ABC correction remains on the back burner, the green path is now primary, with a preliminary target near $7,550-7,600.
A closer look under the microscope shows a very clean impulse off the bottom in Russell. Nasdaq is close as well, although I would like to see a few more turns before assigning higher confidence. Most likely, I will post a Road Map update later tonight.
Live Trading
The Tier 2 members received a Long 25% signal at 9:03 a.m. PST today.
SUMMARY
SPX has shifted back to a bullish short-term posture after confirming yesterday’s daily signals and forming strong bullish continuation candles on the daily and 2D frames. The Elliott Wave structure also improved meaningfully, with the green path now primary and a preliminary target near 7,600.
The broader market is aligned for now. Nasdaq is close to confirming a similar structure, while Russell has produced one of the cleaner impulses off the bottom. With short-term momentum rebuilding and mid- and long-term trends still bullish, the market has regained a constructive stance, pending confirmation on the weekly frames.
