Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis
The Dollar Index is moving again, and the latest signals suggest this may be more than a routine rebound.
After a sharp shift in momentum, DXY is now approaching a critical technical zone where the next move could carry major implications for currencies, commodities, rates, inflation expectations, and global risk assets.
In this weekly analysis, we apply our multi-frame methodology to assess what the dollar’s recent moves mean, evaluate the pressure building beneath the surface, and outline the scenarios most likely to define its next major move.
CANDLES
Apparently, DXY is only a few days away from potentially breaking out of a Double Bottom formation, simultaneously on two different frames. This could be a smaller structure on the daily frame, but on the monthly frame it appears as a much larger, multi-year formation.
So far, DXY is bullish across all tracked frames, with strong chances of closing May next week with powerful bullish signals.
In the April monthly report, we discussed a developing 50/100 MA bullish cross on the 4M frame. It has now moved a few basis points closer.
ELLIOTT WAVES
At this stage, there is no substantial evidence to justify a change in the very long-term outlook. In March, the index possibly formed a long-term bottom, though it is yet to be confirmed.
Last Wave
At this point, no changes to the EW structure have been prompted.
SUMMARY
DXY remains firmly bullish across all tracked frames, with the latest structure pointing toward a potential Double Bottom breakout. The setup is especially important because it appears not only on the daily frame, but also as a much larger multi-year formation on the monthly chart.
The broader technical backdrop continues to strengthen, with May now tracking toward a potentially powerful bullish close. The developing 50/100 MA bullish cross on the 4M frame has also moved closer, adding another long-term layer to the bullish case. The Elliott Wave structure remains unchanged for now.
