Gold Weekly Analysis
Can you imagine having listened to Investing Angles in the middle of January, when we called a major top in gold?
Gold is now approaching a 20% decline from its all-time high for the second time this year. That makes the next move especially important: will this decline officially open the door to a lengthy bear market, or do bulls still have a chance to defend the larger structure?
In this weekly analysis, we examine gold’s evolving setup across multiple timeframes, review the key levels and downside targets, and outline the most probable paths as the metal approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
Two weeks ago, Gold confirmed a 50/100 DMA bearish cross. Now it is rapidly approaching an 8/20 EMA bearish cross on the weekly frame, something it has not done since the 2020–2022 period.
The important difference this time is the location of the cross. It is developing with Gold already nearly 20% below its all-time high, which materially increases the odds of further downside. For the next major statistical checkpoint, we should watch whether a larger event, such as a 50/200 DMA death cross, develops. If it does, it could help define another target for the current decline.
Gold continues to slowly expand bearish momentum on the mid- and long-term frames. Overall, the metal remains bearish across the short-, mid-, and long-term horizons.
Annual Candles
(no changes in this section)
In the annual analysis, we noted that gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands—a condition that typically resolves with a move back inside the range. That process is now underway. As the bands shift lower, updated targets point to a 32–48% decline from the peak, reflecting an evolving structure and adjusted expectations.
A move toward the 20 EMA, implying a potential ~64% drawdown, should not come as a surprise. While it may sound extreme, this is how extended moves typically unwind—not in a single move, but through a prolonged reversion process.
ELLIOTT WAVES
There is a fair chance that Gold is following the red path, forming a larger flat for wave B. The blue path also remains on the table, with the decline potentially unfolding as an impulse: waves i and ii may be complete, and wave iii of 5 may now be underway. If Gold makes a new lower low below the March low, the probability of the red count would be significantly reduced.
Note the inset showing a classical long-term corrective formation from Robert Prechter’s book. The key point is that wave B can be very complex and may take several months to fully develop.
SUMMARY
Gold remains bearish across the short-, mid-, and long-term frames, with momentum continuing to build to the downside. The metal is now approaching a 20% decline from its all-time high for the second time this year, reinforcing the importance of the next major confirmation.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two paths remain open: a complex wave B in red, or a more direct impulsive decline in blue. A break below the March low would strongly reduce the probability of the red count and increase the odds that Gold is already moving through a more serious bearish impulse.
