Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
Following the latest bearish signal, Natural Gas moved lower, and the market is now approaching an important directional test.
In this weekly report, we review the newest candle and momentum signals, assess the evolving technical and Elliott Wave structure, and outline the key levels likely to determine whether Natty is only correcting within a broader bullish setup or preparing for a deeper move.
CANDLES
Natty broke through multiple support levels and increased bearish momentum. The weekly frame closed with a Dark Cloud Cover, although it still held the 8 EMA support and therefore requires confirmation. The monthly frame remains on the fence, with too many possible outcomes still open.
Natural Gas is bearish in the short term and neutral in the mid term, pending confirmation. The long-term outlook remains open.
At the same time, NG is grossly oversold on multiple hourly frames, which raises the risk of a bounce. The key question is how large that bounce will be, and whether it receives enough technical support to become more than a short-term reaction.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
The gap Natty formed at the end of April still adds a great deal of uncertainty to the wave counts. The recent advance could represent the first subwave of wave iii in green, but it could also be the final wave of a larger diagonal structure, as shown in red.
If Natty extends the pullback below the May 7 low, the red scenario would likely become primary. At this point, however, there are too many unknowns, making the Elliott Wave structure less reliable than usual.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas has shifted bearish in the short term after breaking multiple supports and increasing downside momentum. The weekly Dark Cloud Cover adds pressure, but confirmation is still required, especially as the 8 EMA support held.
The broader picture is less clear. The mid-term is neutral pending confirmation, the long-term remains open, and the late-April gap continues to reduce Elliott Wave reliability. If Natty breaks below the May 7 low, the bearish red scenario would likely become primary. At the same time, hourly frames are deeply oversold, so a bounce risk is high; the key question is whether that bounce is only reactive or strong enough to repair the structure.
