TLT – Weekly Analysis

TLT hit our December target and bounced this week, but the key question is whether this rebound is strong enough to change the direction, or whether it is only a pause within the broader bearish trend. In this analysis, we review the evolving technical structure, assess whether the prior decline became stretched enough to support a larger rebound, and outline the most likely path forward for TLT as the bond market continues to pressure long-duration assets. CANDLES No surprises from TLT this week. After becoming grossly oversold, the ETF bounced and even managed to form bottoming patterns on the daily and 2D frames. However, it fell just short of forming a weekly Piercing Line and instead ended with a Thrusting Line, which is generally treated as bearish continuation. Nevertheless, if TLT continues to push higher into month-end, the monthly frame could still form a Ladder Bottom. If confirmed, that would…