Bitcoin – Technical Analysis
On October 19, 2025, when BTC was trading near $108K, we issued a sell alert. Since then, Bitcoin has lost more than 50% from its peak. Recently, however, the coin has started trying to regain ground.
The key question now is whether the latest signals are strong enough to support a major rally, or whether this is only another rebound within a larger corrective structure.
In this technical analysis, we examine Bitcoin’s evolving signals, assess the strength of the current recovery attempt, and outline the most probable paths for the next major move.
CANDLES
Bitcoin was given three months to bounce and solidify the rally. It is now approaching a key moment on the monthly frame.
If the May candle fails to close above the February high, BTC would form a fairly strong Falling Three Methods setup, reinforced by a Deliberation combo. A close above the February high, however, would be bullish, and potentially strongly bullish.
So far, the short- and mid-term odds for the final week of May do not strongly favor the bulls, but anything can still happen. The May close will be key.
Elliott Waves
Last Wave
BTC followed the path we outlined in January very well and reached the $62K target in March. Since then, the coin has been forming what appears to be an even larger bearish flag, prompting a major update to the structure.
The flag is likely close to completion, and the next wave down could unfold as wave C of (2). At this point, it has better chances of developing into a diagonal and landing somewhere in the $31K–53K range.
Ending Diagonal
From the Ending Diagonal perspective, BTC has room to decline toward the $50K–39K area. This aligns well with the flag targets and all previous downside estimates.
SUMMARY
Bitcoin remains at a critical monthly decision point. The coin has had several months to rebuild the bullish case, but unless May closes above the February high, the larger candle structure may shift back toward a bearish continuation setup.
The broader technical structure still favors caution. BTC followed the January roadmap well, reached the March target near $62K, and has since been forming what looks like a larger bearish flag. If that structure completes, the next decline could target the $53K–31K zone, with the Ending Diagonal view also supporting a move toward roughly $50K–39K.
Overall, Bitcoin is trying to recover, but the evidence is not strong enough yet to confirm a major bullish reversal. The May monthly close will be the key decision point.
