Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
Isn’t it interesting how a $0.002 technical failure we flagged yesterday turned into a 6.6% rally in Natural Gas?
Now the key question is whether this was only a sharp reaction from an oversold setup, or the first constructive step toward a larger bullish recovery.
In today’s report, we examine Natty through its key technical signals and evolving structure, identify the critical levels now in focus, and assess the most probable path for the next major move.
CANDLES
Today, Natty produced a solid bullish reversal signal on the daily frame while reclaiming major support. The move also strengthened the 10D frame, which closed with a bullish continuation candle.
If the initial momentum holds over the next two days, the weekly frame will have a fair chance to produce a bullish continuation signal as well.
Overall, the short-term outlook is bullish. The mid- and long-term outlooks are leaning bullish, although they will likely be decided by the end of May.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
I made minor upgrades to the chart, elevating the counts to a larger degree. The green count is primary by a hair, while the red count remains on the table.
The red scenario would become primary if Natty moves below the May 7 low.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas delivered an important bullish response after yesterday’s $0.002 hold, rallying sharply and reclaiming major support. The short-term outlook has shifted bullish, with the 10D frame also reinforcing the recovery.
The broader picture is leaning bullish, but not fully settled yet. The green count is primary by a hair, while the red scenario remains active and would take over if Natty breaks below the May 7 low. The next two sessions and the May close should be key for confirming whether this is the start of a stronger rally or only another turn inside a still-uncertain structure.
