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Global

Volatility – Monthly Analysis

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Open Articles Volatility Weekly
482

The month is over, and volatility has delivered its larger-frame message.

In this monthly analysis, we examine how volatility closed across the key timeframes, what the final monthly signals reveal about hidden market stress, and why the Volatility Index may become one of the most important guides before the broader market makes its next decisive move.

CANDLES

Monthly

Daily/Weekly

Volatility-tracking instruments closed both May and the week with healthy bearish continuation candles. The daily frames also formed bearish candles, reinforcing the broader downside pressure.

However, there is a caveat. US VIX and VIXY may have already bottomed, or may be very close to at least a short-term bottom. The US VIX RSI fell to a level not seen since 2023, and that condition could become one of the triggers for a sizeable volatility bounce starting as early as Monday, June 1. That said, we still need to see an actual reversal, followed by confirming signals and supportive candle combinations.

Given the strong bearish monthly close, the better odds are for any volatility bounce to be short-lived, lasting a few days or possibly a few weeks. But the character of that bounce will matter, and next week should provide more evidence.

Overall, volatility instruments remain bearish until reversed.


Open Articles Volatility Weekly
482
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