Bond Market – Monthly Analysis

The bond market is no longer whispering. It is sending two very different messages on opposite sides of the border. In the U.S., yields remain structurally firm, with the curve still pointing toward higher-rate pressure and the possibility of another policy shock. In Canada, the message is turning in the opposite direction, as recessionary pressure and bearish yield signals raise the odds of rate cuts. In this report, we examine the latest technical signals across the U.S. and Canadian bond markets, assess the widening policy divergence, and outline why the next moves in yields may become one of the most important macro signals for currencies, equities, and the broader economy. CANDLES & TA: On Friday, the daily US10Y failed to close below the previous day’s low by just 0.002%. While that does not make the close automatically bullish, it does raise the bullish odds. At the same time, the monthly…