Natural Gas – Monthly Analysis
In this monthly report, we review the newest candle and momentum signals, assess the evolving technical and Elliott Wave structure, and outline the key levels likely to determine whether Natty is only correcting within a broader bullish setup or preparing for a deeper move.
CANDLES
Natty completed both the month and the week with solid bullish reversal and continuation candles. While the daily frame can be viewed as a short-term bearish signal, that move still requires confirmation.
The broader panel of mid- and long-term frames that also closed on Friday did so constructively, broadly supporting the case for continued upside. A possible 50/200 WMA bullish cross could further strengthen the bullish odds for the coming weeks, or even months.
Overall, NG is neutral in the short term, but bullish in the mid and long term.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
No changes to the previous Elliott Wave assessment. The current wave is likely either wave iii of (iii) in green, or wave (iii) in red.
We should also remember that the gap Natty formed at the end of April still adds a great deal of uncertainty to the wave counts.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas closed the week and month with a constructive bullish message. The broader mid- and long-term frames support continued upside, and a possible 50/200 WMA bullish cross could further strengthen the outlook for the weeks or even months ahead.
Short term, Natty is neutral because the daily frame still carries a possible bearish signal that requires confirmation. However, the larger structure remains bullish, with Elliott Wave still pointing toward either wave iii of (iii) in green or wave (iii) in red. The late-April gap continues to add uncertainty to the exact count, but the broader direction remains constructive until reversed.
