Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
Natural Gas dropped 3% today, but there is an important technical caveat.
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In today’s report, we examine Natty through its key technical signals and evolving structure, identify the critical levels now in focus, and assess the most probable path for the next major move.
CANDLES
Today, Natty dropped over 3% and even formed a Bearish Engulfing, but it could not breach the 8 EMA support. If bears are truly serious about this move, we should see a strong follow-through tomorrow.
At the same time, quietly, when almost nobody was watching, the weekly 50 and 200 WMA made a marginal golden cross. The two previous crosses, in 2018 and 2021, led to powerful rallies of roughly 70% and 240%, respectively. If this little signal holds through the end of the week, I will post a deeper statistical analysis on it.
Also note that the weekly 8 and 20 EMA are curling toward a bullish cross, while the 8-day candle, unless there is a major selloff tomorrow, remains on track for a bullish close.
Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral. The mid- and long-term outlooks remain bullish, with a chance to become strongly bullish if the weekly signals confirm.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
No changes in the Elliott Wave department. The current wave up is likely either wave iii of (iii) in green, or the beginning of wave (iii) in red.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas remains broadly constructive despite the short-term pullback. Bears produced a bearish daily signal, but failed to break key 8 EMA support, so the move is not confirmed yet.
The bigger message is coming from the weekly frame. The potential 50/200 WMA golden cross, together with the curling 8/20 EMA, could materially strengthen the mid- and long-term bullish case if confirmed by the end of the week.
Overall, Natty is neutral short term, but the broader setup remains bullish, with a chance to become strongly bullish if the weekly signals hold.
