Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
Natural Gas closed at a tricky level today. Let’s see what it means on the larger scale.
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In today’s report, we examine Natty through its key technical signals and evolving structure, identify the critical levels now in focus, and assess the most probable path for the next major move.
CANDLES
Today, Natty was saved above the 8 EMA by less than a basis point and may have formed a Deliberation combo with slightly better odds for the upside. At the same time, it produced a moderately bullish continuation candle on the 8-day frame.
Under the hood, the weekly 50 and 200 WMA still marginally hold the golden cross that was triggered on Monday. As a reminder, the two previous crosses, in 2018 and 2021, led to powerful rallies of roughly 70% and 240%, respectively. If this little signal holds through the end of the week, I will post a deeper statistical analysis on it.
Overall, the short-term outlook remains neutral, as neither path was confirmed today. The mid- and long-term outlooks remain bullish, with a chance to become strongly bullish if the weekly signals confirm.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
No changes in the Elliott Wave department. The current structure still fits both the red and green counts, with slightly better prospects for an upward move.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas remains at a short-term decision point, but the broader structure continues to lean bullish. Today’s close above the 8 EMA by less than a basis point prevented bearish confirmation, while the possible Deliberation combo and the 8-day bullish continuation candle keep the upside path alive.
The more important message is still coming from the larger frames. The weekly 50/200 WMA golden cross remains marginally active, and prior examples in 2018 and 2021 led to major rallies. If this signal holds through the end of the week, the mid- and long-term outlook could shift from bullish to strongly bullish. Elliott Wave remains unchanged, with both red and green counts still valid, but with slightly better prospects for an upward move.
