Natural Gas – Daily Analysis
In today’s report, we examine Natty through its key technical signals and evolving structure, identify the critical levels now in focus, and assess the most probable path for the next major move.
CANDLES
Following yesterday’s early warnings, Natty formed a Bullish Engulfing candle, shifting the short-term odds from neutral to moderately bullish.
Under the hood, the weekly 50 and 200 WMA still marginally hold the golden cross that was triggered on Monday. As a reminder, the two previous crosses, in 2018 and 2021, led to powerful rallies of roughly 70% and 240%, respectively. If this little signal holds through the end of the week, I will post a deeper statistical analysis on it.
Overall, the short-term outlook is moderately bullish. The mid- and long-term outlooks remain bullish, with a chance to become strongly bullish if the weekly signals confirm.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Last Wave
No changes in the Elliott Wave department. The current structure still fits both the red and green counts.
SUMMARY:
Natural Gas has shifted back to a moderately bullish short-term posture after forming a Bullish Engulfing candle and following through on the early warning signals. The short-term odds are now constructive, although the structure still needs additional confirmation.
The bigger message remains on the weekly frame. The marginal 50/200 WMA golden cross is still holding, and the two previous examples, in 2018 and 2021, led to powerful rallies of roughly 70% and 240%. If this signal holds through the end of the week, the mid- and long-term outlook could move from bullish to strongly bullish.
Elliott Wave remains unchanged. The current structure still fits both the red and green counts, so the exact path is not fully resolved yet. However, the broader setup remains constructive until reversed.
