Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis

The Dollar rallied today, but the bigger question is whether this move is only a short-term bounce or the beginning of a more meaningful continuation.

In this analysis, we examine the latest DXY signals across key timeframes, review the technical structure behind today’s move, and assess the levels that could define the Dollar’s next major direction.

CANDLES

The Dollar Index rallied today and closed both the day and the week with convincing bullish continuation candles. The daily frame also completed a Double Bottom, signaling $101 as the next target. If this momentum holds, the next major formation to watch would be a Double Bottom on the monthly frame, with potential targets in the $104–105 area.

Overall, DXY remains bullish until reversed.

In the April monthly report, we discussed a developing 50/100 MA bullish cross on the 4M frame. It is now less than 2 basis points away.

ELLIOTT WAVES

At this stage, there is no substantial evidence to justify a change in the very long-term outlook. In March, the index possibly formed a long-term bottom, though it is yet to be confirmed.

Last Wave

At this point, DXY has possibly completed waves i and ii and may have started wave iii.

SUMMARY

The Dollar Index has strengthened meaningfully, closing both the day and the week with convincing bullish continuation candles. The daily Double Bottom has now completed, pointing toward the $101 area as the next target.

If momentum holds, the next major setup to watch is the potential monthly Double Bottom, with targets in the $104–105 area. The larger technical backdrop also remains constructive, with the 4M 50/100 MA bullish cross now less than 2 basis points away.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, DXY may have completed waves i and ii and started wave iii. Overall, the Dollar remains bullish until reversed.