Bond Market – Weekly Analysis

In the U.S., yields remain structurally firm, with the curve still pointing toward higher-rate pressure and the possibility of another policy shock. In this report, we examine the latest technical signals across the U.S. and Canadian bond markets, assess the widening policy divergence, and outline why the next moves in yields may become one of the most important macro signals for currencies, equities, and the broader economy. CANDLES & TA: Multiple bearish failures we pointed out in the monthly report have now materialized in a bullish reaction. The short- and mid-term frames have turned bullish, signaling a continued move higher, just 10 days before the Fed’s rate-setting meeting. The following key paragraphs are from the previous analyses, and I keep them for a long-term reference: From the April 2024 monthly: “The yield ended in April with strong bullish candles across multiple frames and long and very long term odds remain…