Gold Weekly Analysis
Gold is now officially in a bear market, after declining 22% from the all-time top we called in January, when the bullish chorus was almost impossible to ignore.
As our bear market special, we have reintroduced the Precious Metals package at a very attractive price.
In this weekly analysis, we examine Gold’s evolving setup across multiple timeframes, review the key levels and downside targets, and outline the most probable paths as the metal approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
On Friday, gold finally lost the 200 DMA, something it had not done in three years. The 8/20 EMA bearish cross on the weekly frame, recorded a week earlier, was also confirmed.
Statistically, this event signals a continued decline in the 7–25% range. In the worst-case scenario, that would translate into a 38% loss from the top. As you can see, gold is already at the upper target.
Gold continues to slowly expand bearish momentum on the mid- and long-term frames. Overall, the metal remains bearish until signaled otherwise.
Annual Candles
(no changes in this section)
In the annual analysis, we noted that Gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands, a condition that typically resolves through a move back inside the range. That process now appears to be underway.
As the bands shift lower, the updated targets now point to a potential 32–48% decline from the peak, reflecting both the evolving structure and adjusted technical expectations.
A move toward the 20 EMA, which would imply a potential drawdown of roughly 64%, should not come as a surprise either. While that may sound extreme, this is often how highly extended moves unwind: not necessarily through one dramatic collapse, but through a prolonged reversion process that gradually pulls price back toward its long-term technical mean.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Both the blue and red paths remain on the table. After this weekly close, however, the blue path prevails. The current blue wave C can easily extend the decline into the 32–38% range, or even lower.
If Gold follows the red scenario, it would represent a textbook large correction under Elliott Wave and Prechter guidelines.
Note the inset showing a classical long-term corrective formation from Robert Prechter’s book. The key point is that wave B can be very complex and may take several months to fully develop.
SUMMARY
Gold’s bearish outlook is now supported by a rare convergence of technical methods. The metal has declined 22% from the January all-time high, lost the 200 DMA for the first time in three years, confirmed the weekly 8/20 EMA bearish cross, and continues to expand bearish momentum across the mid- and long-term frames.
The larger-timeframe signals point in the same direction. Gold’s annual Bollinger Band overextension is now resolving through reversion back inside the range, while updated targets suggest a potential 32–48% decline from the peak. A deeper move toward the annual 20 EMA would imply an even larger long-term mean-reversion process and should not be dismissed given the scale of the prior extension.
Elliott Waves also align with this view. Both blue and red paths remain possible, but after the latest weekly close, the blue path prevails, with wave C capable of extending the decline into the 32–38% range or more. If the red path develops, it would still fit a textbook large corrective structure, with a complex wave B possibly taking several months to unfold. In short, the candles, moving averages, statistics, Bollinger Bands, and Elliott Wave structure are all pointing to the same message: Gold remains bearish until signaled otherwise.
