Tesla – Weekly Analysis

Two weeks ago, I warned of a big drop coming for Tesla. Now the stock is down over 20%, officially entering a bear market. But is the decline nearly over, or is Tesla just warming up?

In this analysis, we break down the probabilities, examine the technical signals, and uncover what they suggest for Tesla’s next move.

CANDLES

Today, Tesla sliced through the 50, 100, and 200 DMA like a knife through butter, and the move also helped form a Tower Top on the weekly frame. Although the stock is oversold on several hourly frames and will likely bounce short-term, the damage appears more structural, and the chances for a continued decline are higher.

Downside pressure continues to build. The stock is bearish until reversed.

MACD – Monthly

Two months ago, I made a statistical call on a bearish monthly MACD cross.

This event has occurred only three times since Tesla’s IPO, each during a major bear market for the stock. Those periods saw declines ranging from 51% to 75%, averaging around 60% from peak to trough. If a similar environment unfolds, Tesla could be targeting the $125–243 range, with the average near $200 and potential support around the 100-month MA, approximately in the $240–250 area.

In other words, the downside potential remains substantial if the current structure continues to develop.

ELLIOTT WAVE

Mid Term

As discussed earlier, two primary scenarios remain in focus. The green count suggests a leading diagonal from the January 2023 low, opening the door for a move back toward the origin, or at least a 50% retracement, roughly in the $300–100 range. The red count favors a long-term bearish flag for wave (B) of (II), implying that wave (C) may already be underway, with a projected target between $250 and below $100. A decisive move below the January 2023 low would further complicate the structure and increase uncertainty.

The blue rectangle, representing targets derived from MACD statistics, sits well within the overlap of the green and red scenarios. This alignment reinforces both the statistical outlook and the projections from other methodologies.

SUMMARY

Tesla’s structure has turned meaningfully bearish after a decline of more than 20%, a break through the 50, 100, and 200 DMA, and the formation of a weekly Tower Top. While a short-term bounce is possible due to oversold hourly conditions, the broader technical damage suggests the decline may not be complete.

The key point is convergence. The bearish monthly MACD cross, historical bear-market statistics, and Elliott Wave projections all point to a similar downside zone. The MACD-derived target rectangle overlaps with both the green and red wave scenarios, reinforcing the view that Tesla remains exposed to materially lower levels unless the structure reverses.