TLT – Weekly Analysis

TLT is approaching one of the most important macro tests of the year. After months of pressure from structurally firm yields, the long-bond ETF remains caught between a possible relief rally and the risk of another decisive breakdown if rates continue to push higher. In this update, we analyze TLT through technical signals to determine whether the recent setup points to a tradable rebound, a continued bear trend, or a larger warning for equities, currencies, and the broader economy. CANDLES TLT made three attempts to countertrend on the weekly frame. All three failed, and the odds now favor bears on the short- and mid-term frames. The monthly close in May was neutral, but considering the broader technical backdrop, the trend remains bearish. From the larger perspective, we should remember that the 2M and 4M frames printed bearish signals in April. This suggests that any move higher is still likely to…