SP500 – Daily Analysis

In today’s technical analysis, we look past the headlines and examine the latest S&P 500 candles, momentum signals, market structure, and key technical levels to assess the likely direction and potential targets.

CANDLES

Unfortunately, the early bearish candle signals received technical confirmation today. The S&P 500 was the first among the major indices to record an 8/20 EMA bearish cross. The 2D, 5D, and 10D frames on the cash index also closed with a strong bearish bias and significant technical support.

Overall, the short-term outlook for SPX is bearish, while the mid-term outlook is solidly bearish. The index is expected to record lower prices over the next 5–10 trading days, or longer.

Elliott Waves

Last Wave

While I was typing, ES futures made a new lower low, technically invalidating the potential impulsive structure to the upside.

At this point, I will be tracking three potential bearish paths. The red path currently has the lowest probability. The technicals support the hypothesis that the current wave lower is either wave C in green or wave 3 of an impulse of a higher degree in blue.

All potential targets are shown on the chart. A 9–13% decline from the top should not come as a surprise.

The mid-term outlook remains unchanged.

SUMMARY

SPX received technical confirmation of the earlier bearish candle signals. The index became the first among the major indices to record an 8/20 EMA bearish cross, while the 2D, 5D, and 10D frames closed with strong bearish bias and significant technical support.

The futures structure weakened further as ES made a new lower low, invalidating the potential impulsive structure to the upside. At this point, the most probable paths remain bearish, with the current decline likely developing either as wave C in green or as wave 3 of a higher-degree impulse (blue). The red path remains possible, but has the lowest probability for now.

Overall, the short-term outlook for SPX is bearish, while the mid-term outlook is solidly bearish. Lower prices are expected over the next 5–10 trading days, or longer, and a 9–13% decline from the top should not come as a surprise.