SP500 – Daily Analysis
In today’s technical analysis, we look past the headlines and examine the latest S&P 500 candles, momentum signals, market structure, and key technical levels to assess the likely direction and potential targets.
CANDLES
Today SPX recorded multiple bullish signals. It closed the day with a healthy, technically supported bullish continuation candle after a significant gap. At the same time, the index recorded an 8/20 EMA bullish cross which aligns now all four majors together. The ES futures, already made a new ATH, and also formed a Tower Bottom.
Several hourly frames have been overbought. Most likely, we can see a consolidation for 1-2 days.
The index is bullish short-term. If the weekly price moves just a tad higher, it will be a bullish reversal – the mid-term rally will resume.
Elliott Waves
Last Wave
Today, SPX technicals supported the view that the index likely developed wave 3 of some degree, and that it is not yet complete. Ideally, at least one more higher high would be needed. Since futures have already made a new ATH, this event greatly reduced the probability of the red count for a larger correction. The green count remains primary.
The next 1–2 days are likely to bring consolidation for wave (iv), which is expected to be shallow after a rather deep wave (ii). The market may also remain hesitant ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate announcement. This should give us a chance to pause and better understand the character of the wave.
Mid Term
SUMMARY
SPX has shifted back to a bullish short-term structure, supported by a bullish continuation candle, a fresh 8/20 EMA bullish cross, and alignment across all four major indices. ES futures already made a new ATH, which significantly reduced the odds of the larger bearish scenario.
The green Elliott Wave path remains primary. SPX likely developed wave 3 of some degree, and the move may still need at least one more higher high before consolidation becomes complete.
Overall, SPX is bullish short-term. A slightly higher weekly move would likely confirm a bullish reversal and support the resumption of the mid-term rally.
