SP500 – Road Map

Overnight, ES futures made an important technical move that could reshape the short-term roadmap for the cash market. The move did not fully settle the larger question yet, but it did change the probability map and brought several key paths back into focus.

In this road map update, we examine the most probable scenarios now developing in ES, outline the technical levels that can confirm or reject each path, and review the next possible targets. The focus is on whether this move is simply another step within the current structure — or the beginning of a stronger trend-setting advance.

CANDLES

As ES was developing the overnight wave down, it bounced and recorded a tiny wave overlap, invalidating a potential impulse to the downside. The decline is now most likely corrective and can be viewed either as wave iv of a larger blue impulse 1, or as the entire green wave 2.

Since the pullback has been extended in time, it better fits the green scenario, although the blue cannot be entirely rejected.

If the green scenario is confirmed by Friday, the market could experience a magnificent wave 3 rally — potentially 6–8%.

It looks like the market may be setting up to react positively to the Fed’s message later today. Let’s see what kind of rabbit the new Chair pulls out of his hat.