Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis
This week, the Dollar made a major, technically supported move and reached $101 — the target we discussed just a few weeks ago. The precious metals investors should probably pay attention. Gold and Silver are well known for their relationship with Greenback strength, and the Dollar is now sending a message that should not be ignored.
If DXY closes the month near the current level, the next target is already on the table. Candles, classical patterns, and multi-timeframe structure are beginning to align again.
In this analysis, we examine the latest DXY signals across key timeframes, review the technical structure behind this week’s move, and assess the mid- and long-term prospects for the Dollar.
CANDLES
The Dollar Index surged after the Fed’s message. It completed the daily Double Bottom target at $101 and recorded a 100/200 DMA golden cross. While there are no very strong statistics for this exact event, the technical combo is somewhat similar to the 2021 setup, when the Dollar rallied about 25% toward $114.
The weekly frame closed with a strong bullish continuation candle on very healthy technical support. If this momentum holds and June closes at the current level or higher, the monthly Double Bottom would be complete, with potential targets in the $104–105 area.
Overall, DXY remains bullish until reversed.
In the April monthly report, we discussed a developing 50/100 MA bullish cross on the 4M frame. It is now only 0.8 basis points away.
ELLIOTT WAVES
At this stage, there is no substantial evidence to justify a change in the very long-term outlook. In March, DXY may have formed a long-term bottom, though confirmation is still pending. If June closes around $101 or higher, the long-term bottom will likely be confirmed.
Last Wave
At this point, DXY continues to advance in an impulsive manner, possibly developing wave (iii).
SUMMARY
DXY has shifted into a more important bullish position, and the message is no longer limited to the Dollar itself. The latest move strengthens the case that the March low may have been a meaningful long-term bottom, with the monthly and larger-frame structures now approaching key confirmation points.
The importance of this development is that a stronger Dollar can pressure many Dollar-sensitive markets. Precious metals, commodities, emerging-market currencies, and other inversely correlated instruments may find it harder to sustain rallies if DXY continues to build momentum.
For Gold and Silver in particular, this matters. Both metals are already dealing with their own bearish technical setups, and renewed Dollar strength could add another layer of pressure. In other words, the Dollar is not just making a technical move — it may be becoming one of the key macro drivers behind the next phase in risk assets and commodities.
