Silver – Weekly Analysis

Only a miracle can save Silver from a deeply bearish June close. With just two days left in the month, Silver would need to rally roughly 22% to avoid a Bearish Engulfing candle on the quarterly frame — a move that is, for all practical purposes, impossible.

That means we now have to prepare for a potential technical repeat of the major historical signals recorded in 1980 and 2011. Those two patterns preceded 13- and 9-year bear markets, with losses of roughly 92% and 77%, respectively. Using the average historical outcome, Silver could be facing a years-long bear market with a potential decline of around 85%, which would place the metal near its long-term all-time support line.

With that larger warning in place, the next question becomes much more tactical: what does Silver need to do in the short and mid term? In this weekly report, we examine the metal through its underlying technical forces, evolving risk profile, and key inflection points to determine whether Silver is preparing for a durable bottom — or whether the larger correction still has more work to do.

CANDLES:

Silver closed the week with bearish signals. The weekly frame lost the 50 WMA and now points to a higher probability of continued downside. The daily frame attempted to form a local bottom, but that setup still needs confirmation.

The long-term outlook remains bearish. The monthly frame is on track to lose 8 EMA support, but the biggest threat is now coming from the quarterly frame. Silver is set to form a Bearish Engulfing candle with a technical footprint not seen since Q1 1980. If confirmed, this would represent a very serious long-term bearish signal, strongly increasing the odds of continued weakness in the next quarter and potentially beyond.

Silver remains bearish until signaled otherwise. The long-term picture remains solidly bearish.

Elliott Waves

Correction

Wave v still has better odds of extending lower. However, Silver could now be approaching at least a tactical bottom.

Once the green ABC structure is complete, I would treat it only as red wave (A) within a much larger correction that could take years to fully develop, as shown on the inset. Naturally, this view will need to be supported by candles, indicators, and follow-through across the relevant timeframes.

SUMMARY

All eyes on the monthly close.

Silver remains bearish across the larger frames. The weekly close lost the 50 WMA and increased the probability of continued downside, while the daily frame is still trying to form a tactical bottom but has not confirmed it yet.

The key event now is the monthly closure. Silver is on track to lose 8 EMA support, and the quarterly frame is preparing a far more serious warning: a Bearish Engulfing candle with a technical footprint not seen since Q1 1980. If confirmed, this would strongly favor continued weakness into the next quarter and potentially beyond.

Wave v still has better odds of extending lower, although Silver could be approaching at least a tactical bottom. Even if the current green ABC structure completes soon, it would likely represent only red wave (A) of a much larger correction that could take years to fully develop.

Silver remains bearish until signaled otherwise. The monthly and quarterly closes will be decisive.

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