SP500 – Weekly Analysis
Markets remain nervous, and this week’s decline in SPX is a sensible result. But the main question still hangs: was this a sizeable top, or just a regular corrective move — a consolidation before the next leg higher?
Noise aside, this weekly SPX analysis reviews the latest technical signals, sector behavior, and Magnificent 7 signals, while outlining the most probable short- and mid-term paths for the S&P 500.
CANDLES & TA
With all respect to the bears, they have not done enough this week. They were close to confirming a weekly top. They were close to forming a top on the 2D frame. But the only frame that is currently moderately bearish is the daily.
The monthly frame is on the verge. A close at the current level or lower would be bearish, with the severity depending on the exact closing level. At the same time, even a modest advance over the final two trading days could shift the monthly close back to bullish. The quarterly frame still looks solidly bullish unless there is a major selloff before the close.
Overall, the daily frame is moderately bearish, while the mid- and long-term frames are at an inflection point. The very long-term outlook remains bullish.
Sectors & Magnificent 7
After reviewing the weekly and daily candle signals across sectors and the Magnificent 7, I do not see a broadly bearish picture. The declines were contained, and most intraday bearish attacks were largely absorbed by the close.
Communication Services — with Meta and Alphabet being key components — along with Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials, maintained bullish odds on the daily frames. Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon formed strong bullish reversal signals, while Apple, Meta, Google, and Nvidia finished neutral, leaning bullish.
This is an important internal message, and it broadly supports the long-term bullish pressure discussed in the SPX candle section.
Elliott Waves
At this point, the mid-term outlook remains unchanged. SPX has possibly completed, or is close to completing, wave 2 and could be preparing for wave 3.
The red alternative wave (2) remains on the table. The watershed level is the June 11 low.
Road Map
For SPX, the wave structure is slightly different. It did not make an ATH on June 15, and we have several potential counts tracking at the same time. This misalignment between the cash index and futures should be resolved sooner or later.
My theory is that the cleanest path would be for both to make a new lower low in June and then start wave (3) in red. But this is still only a theory. We need to wait for Monday and Tuesday to clarify the structure. The gap in the middle of June remains the main obstacle to higher-probability analysis in the Elliott Wave section.
While comparing the structures of multiple sectors, I also noticed a very informative setup in Communication Services. I think I will run a special analysis later today.
SUMMARY
SPX remains at an important decision point, but bears have not done enough to confirm a larger top. The daily frame is moderately bearish, while the weekly and 2D frames came close to confirming a top but failed to deliver a decisive message. The monthly frame is on the verge and will depend heavily on the final two trading days of June, while the quarterly frame remains broadly bullish unless a major selloff develops.
The internal picture also does not look desperately bearish. Sector and Magnificent 7 signals were mixed but generally resilient, with declines contained and several intraday bearish attacks absorbed by the close. Communication Services, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials preserved constructive odds, while several key mega-cap names showed either bullish reversal potential or neutral-to-bullish positioning.
From the wave perspective, the mid-term outlook remains unchanged. SPX may have completed, or may be close to completing, wave 2 and could be preparing for wave 3. The red alternative wave (2) remains on the table, with the June 11 low as the key watershed level. The cash index and futures remain slightly misaligned, and that gap in structure still limits the probability of a cleaner Elliott Wave read.
Looking across Nasdaq and Dow, the broader market picture is still nervous but not broken. Nasdaq remains neutral and may need one more lower low to complete a complex corrective structure before a potentially strong rally. Dow is also neutral short-term, with tactical downside risk, but remains bullish mid- and long-term if any pullback is contained. Overall, the market forces are still balanced near a critical inflection point: short-term bearish pressure is present, but the larger bullish structure has not been invalidated. Monday and Tuesday should clarify whether this was only consolidation before the next leg higher, or the beginning of something more serious.
