Oil – Daily Analysis

Oil is down 13% since our mid-June call, made when many talking heads were still expecting a run toward $150. The question now is simple: was that drawdown enough, or does oil still have more room to fall?

Today’s report focuses on the structure behind the move — the newest technical signals, the strength or weakness beneath the bounce, and the paths that could define oil’s next decisive move. The key question is whether oil is preparing to confirm a local bottom, resume the mid-term breakdown after a temporary pause, or trigger a larger-frame signal that could change the entire map into the end of June.

CANDLES

Oil closed with a bearish-neutral signal on the daily frame and a solid bearish continuation signal on the 8D frame. Technicals continue to favor bears and point to at least one more lower low.

Tomorrow’s monthly close will likely be strongly bearish. Brent needs roughly 13% to avoid a Bearish Engulfing on the 2M frame. WTI needs even more to mitigate a strong bearish monthly close.

Overall, oil is moderately bearish short-term and strongly bearish mid- and long-term, with a high probability of strengthening the long-term bearish odds after tomorrow’s close.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Long Term

Both Brent and WTI are tracking approximately similar long-term structures.

The current bounce has been corrective, signaling higher odds for another move lower, potentially completing wave 3 of some degree.

The most typical targets for wave 3 remain unchanged — between $60 and $47.

Summary:

Oil remains firmly bearish, despite short-term bounces. The latest daily and 8D signals continue to favor bears, and the technical structure points to at least one more lower low.

The larger frames are the main concern. The monthly, 2M, and long-term structures are likely to strengthen the bearish outlook after the June close unless oil stages an unusually sharp recovery.

From the wave perspective, Brent and WTI continue to track similar long-term structures. The current bounce looks corrective, keeping the probability higher for another move lower, potentially completing wave 3 of some degree. The most typical target zone remains unchanged at $60–47.

Overall, oil is moderately bearish short-term and strongly bearish mid- and long-term until reversed.