SP500 – Monthly Analysis

In today’s technical analysis, we look past the headlines and examine the latest S&P 500 and broader market signals, momentum shifts, market structure, sector behavior, and key technical levels to assess the most probable direction and potential targets.

The focus is on whether today’s reversal damaged the bullish roadmap, or simply reset the short-term structure before the next move. We also review the message from the sectors and the Magnificent 7, as their participation — or lack of it — may become critical in determining whether this was only a temporary pause or the start of a more meaningful shift beneath the surface.

CANDLES

Today, SPX closed June with a healthy bullish set of candles on the 2M and quarterly frames. The monthly close printed a red candle, but technically it carried more bullish support than bearish pressure.

The daily frame decisively climbed above multiple major levels, which now act as support, and potentially formed a Three White Soldiers pattern. The 3D frame also closed with a solid Bullish Engulfing.

The most influential sectors, including Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials, recorded bullish reversal or continuation signals. Financials did not confirm a potential reversal.

All Magnificent 7 stocks closed the daily and 3D frames above major support levels, with bullish candles of various strength.

Overall, SPX is now bullish until signaled otherwise.

Elliott Waves

Mid Term

SPX possibly completed wave 2 of (3) and may have started wave 3 of (3). While the technicals do not fully support this wave structure yet, they are starting to tilt in that direction.

Last Wave

While the blue count, representing a larger ABC, and the purple count, representing a potential triangle, remain on the table, the green count now becomes primary.

Once the index makes a new ATH, the purple count will be invalidated, while the probability of the blue count will be significantly reduced.

So far, at the micro level, the wave structure continues to show impulsive advances and corrective pullbacks.

SUMMARY

SPX closed June with a constructive technical message. The 2M and quarterly frames finished with healthy bullish candles, while the monthly red candle still carried more bullish support than bearish pressure. The daily and 3D frames also improved meaningfully, with price reclaiming major support levels and forming strong bullish signals.

The broader market support was also constructive. Key sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials produced bullish reversal or continuation signals, while the Magnificent 7 closed above major supports with bullish candles of varying strength.

From the Elliott Wave perspective, the green count is now primary. SPX may have completed wave 2 of (3) and started wave 3 of (3), though full technical confirmation is still developing. The blue larger ABC and purple triangle counts remain on the table for now, but a new ATH would invalidate the purple count and significantly reduce the blue count probability.

Overall, SPX is bullish until signaled otherwise.