Gold Weekly Analysis
After dropping almost 30% from the all-time high in a move forecast back in December, Gold now has fair chances to build a bottom. The key question is whether bulls have enough technical strength to support the move.
In this weekly analysis, we zoom out across key timeframes, review the critical levels and targets, and assess the scenarios that could define Gold’s next decisive move.
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CANDLES:
Last week, we discussed the strong bearish close on the monthly and larger frames, as well as Gold’s attempt to form at least a short-term bottom on the daily and weekly frames.
Apparently, bull power was not sufficient for now. Bulls were unable to confirm a bullish move on the weekly frame, and Friday’s close was rather neutral. At the same time, Gold continued to build even stronger bearish momentum on the very large frames. The 50/200 DMA bearish cross is expanding, and the 100/200 DMA bearish cross now looks inevitable.
Overall, while Gold is closer to neutral in the short term, the mid- and long-term outlook remains bearish until we see a confirmed reversal signal on at least the weekly frame.
Annual Candles
(no change, just an updated chart)
In the annual analysis, we noted that Gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands — a condition that typically resolves through a move back inside the range. That process now appears to be underway.
As the bands shift lower, the updated targets now point to a potential 35–50% decline from the peak, reflecting both the evolving structure and adjusted technical expectations.
A move toward the annual 20 EMA, which would imply a potential drawdown of roughly 64%, should not come as a surprise either. While that may sound extreme, this is often how highly extended moves unwind — not necessarily through one dramatic collapse, but through a prolonged reversion process that gradually pulls price back toward its long-term technical mean.
ELLIOTT WAVES
I was patiently waiting for a week to see what kind of wave Gold would form downward. Now we can say that the wave was corrective, which increases the probability that the metal may continue higher.
The size and character of the next wave up will be key. If Gold forms a strong impulse that ends in the blue rectangle or higher, it would create a foundation for an impulse of a higher degree.
A shorter wave — whether an impulse or a diagonal — that reverses in the red rectangle would likely signal that new lower lows are coming.
Gold may have completed the entire correction with blue wave (c) of 4, or only the first wave A of a larger ABC correction in green.
However, as the bottom has not been confirmed yet, the red count — suggesting at least one more lower low — remains on the table. If we listen to the candles and technicals, the red count still has better odds, but that could change if Gold develops an impulse of a higher degree upward.
Again, the current wave up is key.
Long Term
Looking at the all-time chart, I outlined both potential paths — blue and green — back in February, when Gold was around $5,300.
The blue path would be the more favorable outcome, as it would suggest the correction is complete and could be followed by a swift wave 5. However, this still needs to be proven.
SUMMARY
Gold is trying to build a bottom after the well-anticipated decline from the all-time high, but the recovery is not confirmed yet.
The short-term picture has improved slightly after the recent wave down developed correctively, which increases the chance for another move higher. However, bulls still need to prove that this bounce can develop into a stronger impulse rather than another temporary reaction.
The larger technical backdrop remains bearish. Gold failed to confirm a bullish move on the weekly frame, while the very large frames continue to carry bearish momentum, supported by expanding bearish DMA crosses.
Overall, Gold is closer to neutral in the short term, but the mid- and long-term outlook remains bearish until a confirmed reversal signal develops on at least the weekly frame. The current wave up is key: a strong impulse could shift the outlook meaningfully, while a weaker reversal would likely keep the door open for new lower lows.
