Oil – Weekly Analysis

After a very bullish start to the week, oil pulled back, and these two moves provided plenty of useful data for analysis. Does this signal the start of a new bullish trend, or is it still too early to make that call?

In this weekly report, we focus on the signals that matter most now: the technical structures, statistics, and key timeframes that could define oil’s next major phase. Short-term bounces can create noise, but the larger frames carry the weight that can reshape the road map for months.

We step back from the headlines and examine the latest oil signals, the most important scenarios, and the technical conditions likely to determine the next decisive move.

CANDLES and TA

There is a strong mix of signals after Friday’s close. The weekly frames for both Brent and WTI formed Bullish Engulfing candles. However, the candles are rather weak due to their composition and limited technical support. A healthy confirmation is still needed.

At the same time, the daily close produced bearish continuation signals, increasing the odds for a bearish start to next week. The 2D and 3D frames did not close on Friday, so we need to wait until Monday to get a clearer read on the true momentum between the daily and weekly frames.

All short- and mid-term trends remain bearish. Long-term candle signals are also bearish.

Overall, oil is bearish in the short term, but the risk of a mid-term bounce is elevated. The long-term outlook remains firmly bearish.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Long Term – WTI

Mid Term

Micro

The current wave down has been corrective at the micro level. Oil still has a chance to form an impulse if it holds the July 3 high, shown in green.

If that level breaks, we could expect a larger corrective wave for wave iv, which we are tracking on the mid-term chart.

The July 3 high is the key level to watch on Monday and Tuesday.

Summary:

Oil remains bearish in the short term, while the risk of a mid-term bounce is elevated.

The weekly Bullish Engulfing candles in Brent and WTI suggest that a bounce attempt is possible, but the signals are not strong enough yet and still need healthy confirmation. At the same time, the daily frame closed with bearish continuation signals, which keeps pressure on the beginning of next week.

The key short-term level to watch is the July 3 high. If oil holds above it, the market still has a chance to build an impulsive move higher. If that level breaks, the current structure would likely shift toward a larger corrective wave iv.

Overall, oil remains bearish on the larger frames, but Monday and Tuesday could be important for deciding whether the mid-term bounce risk develops into something more meaningful.