Carry Trade – Weekly Analysis

In a market full of noise, interventions, policy shifts, and constant speculation, the larger technical structure has continued to follow the same roadmap. In this analysis, we reassess USD/JPY through major currency dynamics, technical signals, and long-term structure to determine whether the bullish path still holds, what could invalidate it, and what may shape the pair’s next major move. CANDLES The week completed with neutral signals across multiple short- and mid-term frames, possibly pointing to an extended correction. Still, all bullish trends remain intact. USD/JPY remains firmly bullish long term. ELLIOTT WAVES The long-term targets for USD/JPY remain intact. The pair made a new higher high above the top of wave 3, which lowers the probability of the alternate blue wave 4 scenario. However, the recent move upward looks corrective, implying a higher probability for an extended corrective wave — either horizontally or slightly lower — as modeled on the…