Gold Weekly Analysis
Gold has now lost almost 30% from its high and is trading right in the middle of the blue target area we outlined back in February. The target was hit. The next question is far more important: what comes next — the blue recovery path, the green extension, or the heartbreaking red scenario?
This is where the chart becomes critical. Gold is sitting at a major decision point, and the next confirmed signal could define not only the next bounce, but the broader roadmap for the rest of the year.
In this weekly Gold analysis, we zoom out across the key timeframes, review the latest candle and momentum signals, identify the critical levels and targets, and assess the most probable scenarios for Gold’s next decisive move.
CANDLES:
Gold closed Friday with predominantly bearish signals across multiple frames, including the 15D frame. However, I would not call the signals overwhelmingly bearish. The chance of a bounce remains, especially if the daily signal confirms on Monday or Tuesday.
On the bearish side, the weekly frame continued to push lower toward the 100 WMA. The daily frame is also tracking toward an inevitable 100/200 DMA death cross, last recorded almost three years ago. Short- and mid-term trends remain bearish, while long-term momentum on the 1M and 2M frames is also bearish.
Overall, while Gold is closer to neutral in the short term, the mid- and long-term outlook remains bearish until we see a confirmed reversal signal on at least the weekly frame.
Annual Candles
(no change, just an updated chart)
In the annual analysis, we noted that Gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands — a condition that typically resolves through a move back inside the range. That process now appears to be underway.
As the bands shift lower, the updated targets now point to a potential 35–50% decline from the peak, reflecting both the evolving structure and adjusted technical expectations.
A move toward the annual 20 EMA, which would imply a potential drawdown of roughly 64%, should not come as a surprise either. While that may sound extreme, this is often how highly extended moves unwind — not necessarily through one dramatic collapse, but through a prolonged reversion process that gradually pulls price back toward its long-term technical mean.
ELLIOTT WAVES
This week, Gold and Silver parted ways, at least temporarily. Silver clearly made a new lower low and invalidated potential bullish counts, increasing the odds for additional lower lows. Gold, however, avoided a new lower low and kept both the red and blue counts firmly on the table.
Another important twist is that Gold’s wave upward looks impulsive so far, further increasing the bullish odds. However, a new lower low would align Gold with Silver and open the path toward the green rectangle, potentially implying another 4–9% decline from current levels.
Gold is now approaching an important decision point, and the next major signal could arrive early next week.
No changes to the mid-term chart.
Long Term
Looking at the all-time chart, I outlined both potential paths — blue and green — back in February, when Gold was trading around $5,300.
The blue path would be the more favorable outcome, as it would suggest that the correction is complete and could be followed by a swift wave 5. However, this still needs to be proven. After the technical damage done this year, Gold would need at least weekly — or even larger-frame — candle and technical signals to confirm a reversal.
SUMMARY
Gold remains at a critical decision point after reaching the blue target area outlined back in February. The short-term picture is closer to neutral, with a possible bounce, especially if the daily signal confirms early next week. However, the broader technical damage remains significant, and the mid- to long-term outlook stays bearish until Gold produces a confirmed reversal signal on at least the weekly frame.
The key difference versus Silver is that Gold has not yet made a new lower low. Silver already broke down, invalidated the immediate bullish options, and opened the door to a wider downside target area. Gold, however, has kept both the blue and red recovery paths alive, and the recent wave upward still looks impulsive enough to preserve some bullish potential.
That said, Gold cannot afford a new lower low. If it breaks below the recent low, it would likely align with Silver’s bearish message and open the path toward the green target area, with another 4–9% downside risk from current levels.
Overall, Gold is still undecided, while Silver has already shifted more clearly bearish. Early next week may be important for determining whether Gold separates from Silver with a confirmed reversal — or follows it lower.
